What is the current probability for "Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 95.9% and 215.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced explosive volatility, surging 171% over seven days from 21¢ to 57¢, likely driven by recent title fight developments or Ulberg's improved standing in the division.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 60/71¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $562.4·OI $12,338.88·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXUFCLHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-CULB

7-day price509 snapshots · 31 regime

72¢60¢ current

Apr 816¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

The market has experienced explosive volatility, surging 171% over seven days from 21¢ to 57¢, likely driven by recent title fight developments or Ulberg's improved standing in the division. The 187% risk-adjusted implied yield on the No side suggests significant skepticism about Ulberg holding the belt in 259 days, despite the current 58% Yes price, indicating the market may be pricing in high turnover risk in the light heavyweight division. With only $853 in daily volume against $10.6k open interest and a wide 10¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to open positions, making this a speculative market vulnerable to sharp repricing on new information.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 65¢(Δ -5¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 77.7%Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

If Carlos Ulberg is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 95.9%

IY (No) 215.8%

Adj IY 176%

CRI 2

RV 305%

VR 3.31

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	95.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	215.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	176%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	305%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.31	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:31:22 AM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUFCLHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-CULB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →