Best AI in Dec 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Best AI in Dec 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes holders facing an exceptional 799.7% annualized return against a modest 24.9% for No positions, suggesting the 16¢ price significantly undervalues OpenAI's probability of maintaining top LLM status through end-2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes holders facing an exceptional 799.7% annualized return against a modest 24.9% for No positions, suggesting the 16¢ price significantly undervalues OpenAI's probability of maintaining top LLM status through end-2026. The sharp 33% price surge over seven days (12¢ to 16¢) combined with moderate liquidity ($8.4K daily volume against $404K open interest) and a tight 1¢ spread indicates growing conviction, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 warns of potential volatility around resolution events. With 259 days to expiry, this remains a relatively long-duration bet where near-term AI benchmark results could trigger significant repricing.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI yes 100