Five Star Movement in the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election
Five Star Movement is priced at 46¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Who will win the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election.
Price history
46¢ current
Contract brief
If the winner of the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election in 2027 is Five Star Movement, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Five Star Movement
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Brothers of Italy 54¢
Range
1¢-54¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXITALYDEPUTIES-27-M5S
Jun 21, 2026, 5:14 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$22
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Who will win the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election
Closes
Dec 30, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the winner of the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election in 2027 is Five Star Movement, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 30, 2028
Identifier
KXITALYDEPUTIES-27-M5S
Event family
Who will win the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Brothers of Italy 54¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
none
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.