Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing August 13, 2027. The UPND contract is pricing in a 71% win probability with extremely thin liquidity ($213.88 open interest and just $1 in 24-hour volume), making this market highly susceptible to manipulation and unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
The UPND contract is pricing in a 71% win probability with extremely thin liquidity ($213.88 open interest and just $1 in 24-hour volume), making this market highly susceptible to manipulation and unreliable for serious positioning. The 176.1% implied yield on the "No" side is extraordinarily high relative to the 32.4% "Yes" yield, suggesting either severe mispricing or that contrarian bettors view the current 71¢ price as significantly overvalued for an incumbent party in a competitive African democracy. With 484 days to expiry and a modest 4¢ price rise over the past week, this appears to be a speculative, illiquid market where the wide yield asymmetry warrants caution before committing capital.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Zambian National Assembly election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is United Party for National Development, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXZAMBIAASSEMBLY-26-UPND yes 100