United Party for National Development in the next Zambian National Assembly election
United Party for National Development is priced at 72¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 74¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election.
Price history
72¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If the winner of the next Zambian National Assembly election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is United Party for National Development, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
United Party for National Development
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
United Party for National Development 74¢
Range
10¢-74¢
Family volume
$500
Identifier
KXZAMBIAASSEMBLY-26-UPND
Jun 26, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
74¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$500
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election
Closes
Aug 13, 2027
Family volume
$500
Orderbook snapshot
74 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the winner of the next Zambian National Assembly election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is United Party for National Development, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 13, 2027
Identifier
KXZAMBIAASSEMBLY-26-UPND
Event family
Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$500
Outcomes
2
Highest price
United Party for National Development 74¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.