10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end above 4.55%
Above 4.55% is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
Price history
19¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If the 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 4.55%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.55%
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Above 4.50% 4¢
Range
1¢-4¢
Family volume
$42
Identifier
KXUST10M-26JUN30-T4.55
Jun 24, 2026, 7:37 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$6
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$42
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 4.55%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUST10M-26JUN30-T4.55
Event family
Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$42
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 4.50% 4¢
Current share
14%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
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Implied Yield (IY)
Implied yield converts a prediction market price into the same annualized return units as a treasury bill. Formula, worked example, and where IY breaks down.
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Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 19% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.