Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.20%
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.20% is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 100¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
98¢ current
+75¢Contract brief
If 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.20%
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
KXUST2-26JUN30-T4.20
Jun 27, 2026, 6:14 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
Reported volume
$12K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Identifier
KXUST2-26JUN30-T4.20
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.20% 98¢
Current share
100%
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.20%
kalshi · KXUST2-26JUN30-T4.20
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Implied Yield (IY)
Implied yield converts a prediction market price into the same annualized return units as a treasury bill. Formula, worked example, and where IY breaks down.
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.