a party founded by Elon Musk · KXAMERICAPARTY2028-28SEP01
a party founded by Elon Musk is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
10¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
a party founded by Elon Musk
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXAMERICAPARTY2028-28SEP01
Aug 6, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 8, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 8, 2028
Identifier
KXAMERICAPARTY2028-28SEP01
Event family
KXAMERICAPARTY2028-28SEP01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
a party founded by Elon Musk 8¢
Current share
—
a party founded by Elon Musk
kalshi · KXAMERICAPARTY2028-28SEP01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 10% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.