Before Aug 1, 2026 · Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before
Before Aug 1, 2026 is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before.
Price history
2¢ current
−48¢Contract brief
If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 1, 2026
Rank
#6 of 6
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 24¢
Range
2¢-24¢
Family volume
$912
Identifier
KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26AUG01
Jun 25, 2026, 11:27 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$850
Family rank
#6 of 6
6 outcomes · Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$912
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26AUG01
Event family
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$912
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 24¢
Current share
93%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXSENATEREC-26JUN-27JAN01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26NOV01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26DEC01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26OCT01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26SEP01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26AUG01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.