Abdul El-Sayed · KXSENATEMID-26
Abdul El-Sayed is priced at 84¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 83¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside KXSENATEMID-26.
Price history
84¢ current
+28¢Contract brief
If Abdul El-Sayed wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Abdul El-Sayed
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Abdul El-Sayed 83¢
Range
2¢-83¢
Family volume
$43K
Identifier
KXSENATEMID-26-AELS
Jun 25, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
83¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$26K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · KXSENATEMID-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$43K
Orderbook snapshot
83 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Abdul El-Sayed wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXSENATEMID-26-AELS
Event family
KXSENATEMID-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$43K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Abdul El-Sayed 83¢
Current share
60%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.