Democratic Party · CONTROLH-2026
Democratic Party is priced at 84¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 83¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside CONTROLH-2026.
Price history
84¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic Party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Democratic Party 83¢
Range
16¢-83¢
Family volume
$34K
Identifier
CONTROLH-2026-D
Jul 25, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
83¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$16K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · CONTROLH-2026
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$34K
Orderbook snapshot
83 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
CONTROLH-2026-D
Event family
CONTROLH-2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$34K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic Party 83¢
Current share
49%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.365
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.