Adri Arnaus · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26
Adri Arnaus is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 99¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26.
Price history
99¢ current
Contract brief
If Adri Arnaus is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Adri Arnaus
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Adri Arnaus 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$28K
Identifier
KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-AARN
Jun 24, 2026, 11:37 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
99¢
24h volume
$8K
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
Family volume
$28K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Adri Arnaus is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
Identifier
KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-AARN
Event family
KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$28K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Adri Arnaus 99¢
Current share
26%
Adri Arnaus
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-AARN
Albin Bergstrom
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-ABER
Joaquin Niemann
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-JNIE
Patrick Reed
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-PREE
Antoine Rozner
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-AROZ
Calum Hill
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-CHIL
Angel Ayora Fanegas
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-AAYO
Gregorio De Leo
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-GDEL
Ryan Palmer
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-DSA8OD26-RPAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.