AfD · KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13
AfD is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13.
Price history
4¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If AfD wins the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
AfD
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
CDU 56¢
Range
1¢-56¢
Family volume
$542
Identifier
KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13-AFD
Aug 9, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$40
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Family volume
$542
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If AfD wins the 2026 Osnabrück mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 13, 2027
Identifier
KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13-AFD
Event family
KXOSNABRUCKMAYOR-26SEP13.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$542
Outcomes
4
Highest price
CDU 56¢
Current share
7%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.