SimpleFunctions

Alannah and Bryce · KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2

Alannah and Bryce is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2.

Price history

44¢ current

40¢45¢
Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Alannah and Bryce finish 2nd in Love Island USA Season 8, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Alannah and Bryce

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Alannah and Bryce 44¢

Range

1¢-44¢

Family volume

$5K

Identifier

KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2-ALBR

Jun 25, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 5m ago

Implied probability

44¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 5m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$10

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Family volume

$5K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
99¢65
100¢17

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Alannah and Bryce finish 2nd in Love Island USA Season 8, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Identifier

KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2-ALBR

SF Signal
SF Index
338.62
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

693.0%

IY (No)

427.8%

Adj IY

339%

CRI

1

Overround

38.5%

LAS

0.02

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

693.0%
427.8%
Adj IY
339%
1
Overround
38.5%
LAS
0.02

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.