Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York?

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $827 in open interest, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (21.2% for Yes vs. 37.3% for No) suggest the market may be mispriced, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 37.3% compared to the 19% risk-adjusted yield on Yes. With nearly 3.5 years until expiration and no recent price movement, this appears to be a stale market where the current price reflects minimal recent trading activity rather than genuine consensus.

Resolution rules

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III New York Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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