Will Amanda Anisimova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Amanda Anisimova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 16¢ price reflects a 16% probability of Anisimova winning a Grand Slam within the next 258 days, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,473 in open interest, making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading.
Analysis
The 16¢ price reflects a 16% probability of Anisimova winning a Grand Slam within the next 258 days, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,473 in open interest, making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading. The 742% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests either significant mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for the illiquidity risk and binary nature of tennis outcomes. With a Cliff Risk Index of 5 and neutral regime, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the price may not reflect true consensus, and any position would face challenges in execution.
Resolution rules
If Amanda Anisimova wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-AANI yes 100