Amendment 8 · Will Amendment
Amendment 8 is priced at 70¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 67¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Amendment.
Price history
70¢ current
+25¢Contract brief
If Amendment 8 passes in Missouri, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Amendment 8
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Amendment 8 67¢
Range
18¢-67¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MO-A8
Aug 17, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
67¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Amendment
Closes
Nov 2, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
67 / 73¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Amendment 8 passes in Missouri, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 2, 2027
Identifier
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-MO-A8
Event family
Will Amendment.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Amendment 8 67¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 70% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.