Will Andy Biggs be the Republican nominee for Governor in Arizona?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92¢) for Biggs securing the Republican nomination, yet the zero 24-hour volume and modest $14,507 open interest suggest minimal trader conviction despite the bullish lean. The massive 2115.9% implied yield on the "No" side indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity—traders betting against Biggs would need extraordinary confidence to justify such asymmetric payoff potential, though the 5¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest the market hasn't attracted enough capital to establish true equilibrium pricing.

Resolution rules

If Andy Biggs wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Arizona Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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