Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026
Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026 is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
97¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Apple has announced a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$151K
Identifier
APPLEFOLD-26DEC31
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$10K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$151K
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Apple has announced a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
APPLEFOLD-26DEC31
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$151K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026 97¢
Current share
100%
Will Apple announce a foldable phone by Dec 31, 2026
kalshi · APPLEFOLD-26DEC31
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 97% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.