Argentina to win in Penalty Shootout · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG
Argentina to win in Penalty Shootout is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG.
Price history
10¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Argentina advances past England in the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Semifinal soccer tie originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026 via victory in Penalty Shootout, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Argentina to win in Penalty Shootout
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
England to win in Regulation Time 36¢
Range
7¢-36¢
Family volume
$87K
Identifier
KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGPEN
Jul 14, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15K
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Family volume
$87K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Argentina advances past England in the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Semifinal soccer tie originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026 via victory in Penalty Shootout, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Identifier
KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGPEN
Event family
KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$87K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
England to win in Regulation Time 36¢
Current share
17%
England to win in Regulation Time
kalshi · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGREG
Argentina to win in Regulation Time
kalshi · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGREG
Argentina to win in Penalty Shootout
kalshi · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGPEN
England to win in Penalty Shootout
kalshi · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGPEN
Argentina to win in Extra Time
kalshi · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGET
England to win in Extra Time
kalshi · KXWCMOV-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGET
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.