Argentina · KXWC3RDPLACE-26
Argentina is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXWC3RDPLACE-26.
Price history
25¢ current
+23¢Contract brief
If Argentina wins the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup third-place match originally scheduled for July 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Argentina
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
France 15¢
Range
1¢-15¢
Family volume
$35K
Identifier
KXWC3RDPLACE-26-ARG
Jun 24, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
14¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWC3RDPLACE-26
Closes
Jul 18, 2028
Family volume
$35K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Argentina wins the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup third-place match originally scheduled for July 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 18, 2028
Identifier
KXWC3RDPLACE-26-ARG
Event family
KXWC3RDPLACE-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$35K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
France 15¢
Current share
11%
France
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-FRA
Argentina
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-ARG
Spain
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-ESP
USA
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-USA
Netherlands
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-NED
Morocco
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-MAR
Colombia
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-COL
Norway
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-NOR
Germany
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-GER
Brazil
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-BRA
Portugal
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-POR
England
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-ENG
Mexico
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-MEX
Japan
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-JPN
Cape Verde
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-CPV
Bosnia and Herzegovina
kalshi · KXWC3RDPLACE-26-BIH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.