Ariana Grande be #1 on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for at least 3 chart days in July 2026
At least 3 days is priced at 45¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 50¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will Ariana Grande be #1 on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for at least.
Price history
45¢ current
−9¢Contract brief
If Ariana Grande is #1 on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for at least 3 chart days in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 3 days
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
At least 12 days 26¢
Range
5¢-26¢
Family volume
$16
Identifier
KXSPOTIFYNUM1USA-26AUG01-ARI-3
Jun 25, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
50¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Ariana Grande be #1 on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for at least
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$16
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 70¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ariana Grande is #1 on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for at least 3 chart days in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXSPOTIFYNUM1USA-26AUG01-ARI-3
Event family
Will Ariana Grande be #1 on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart for at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16
Outcomes
4
Highest price
At least 12 days 26¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.