Ariana Madix as the official host · KXROLEINPRODUCTIONLI-27JUL31
Ariana Madix as the official host? is priced at 78¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 77¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
78¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Ariana Madix performs as the official host in Love Island USA Season 9, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ariana Madix as the official host?
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$38
Identifier
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONLI-27JUL31-ARI
Aug 16, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
77¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$38
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 7, 2027
Family volume
$38
Orderbook snapshot
77 / 83¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ariana Madix performs as the official host in Love Island USA Season 9, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 7, 2027
Identifier
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONLI-27JUL31-ARI
Event family
KXROLEINPRODUCTIONLI-27JUL31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$38
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Ariana Madix as the official host? 77¢
Current share
100%
Ariana Madix as the official host?
kalshi · KXROLEINPRODUCTIONLI-27JUL31-ARI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.