SimpleFunctions

Austin · KXLEAGUESCUP-26

Austin is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXLEAGUESCUP-26.

Price history

18¢ current

+17¢
0¢10¢20¢
Aug 8, 2026Aug 10, 2026

Contract brief

If Austin is the 2026 Leagues Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Austin

Rank

#7 of 16

Leader

America 16¢

Range

1¢-16¢

Family volume

$131K

Identifier

KXLEAGUESCUP-26-ATX

Aug 10, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

18¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 10, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

Ask

16¢

Spread

13¢

24h volume

$5K

Family rank

#7 of 16

16 outcomes · KXLEAGUESCUP-26

Closes

Sep 21, 2026

Family volume

$131K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 16¢

Kalshi
13¢ spread
BidSize
100¢4.5K
3¢25
2¢500
AskSize
16¢121
17¢442
19¢260
20¢500
21¢1.1K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Austin is the 2026 Leagues Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 21, 2026

Identifier

KXLEAGUESCUP-26-ATX

SF Signal
SF Index
9424.31
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

28271.5%

IY (No)

27.0%

Adj IY

9424%

CRI

32

Overround

-0.4%

LAS

0.33

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

28271.5%
27.0%
Adj IY
9424%
32
Overround
-0.4%
LAS
0.33

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.