Barron Mamiya · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI
Barron Mamiya is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI.
Price history
25¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
If Barron Mamiya wins the 2026 Outerknown Tahiti Pro surfing competition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Barron Mamiya
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Kauli Vaast 24¢
Range
1¢-24¢
Family volume
$24K
Identifier
KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-BMAM
Aug 9, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
12¢
24h volume
$78
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI
Closes
Feb 15, 2027
Family volume
$24K
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Barron Mamiya wins the 2026 Outerknown Tahiti Pro surfing competition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 15, 2027
Identifier
KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-BMAM
Event family
KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$24K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Kauli Vaast 24¢
Current share
0%
Kauli Vaast
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-KVAA
Barron Mamiya
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-BMAM
Jake Marshall
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-JMAR
Gabriel Medina
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-GMED
Connor O'Leary
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-COLE
Alan Cleland
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-ACLE
Callum Robson
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-CROB
Ethan Ewing
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-EEWI
Filipe Toledo
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-FTOL
Eimeo Czermak
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-ECZE
Eli Hanneman
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-EHAN
Crosby Colapinto
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-CCOL
Alejo Muniz
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-AMUN
Kanoa Igarashi
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-KIGA
Joel Vaughan
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-JVAU
Cole Houshmand
kalshi · KXSURFCOMPETITION-26TAHI-CHOU
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.