Before Oct 1, 2026 · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before
Before Oct 1, 2026 is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before.
Price history
2¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Before Nov 1, 2026 5¢
Range
2¢-5¢
Family volume
$418
Identifier
KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01
Jul 29, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$14
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$418
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXARRESTNETANYAHU-28JAN01-26OCT01
Event family
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$418
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Nov 1, 2026 5¢
Current share
5%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.