Before Jul 1, 2026 · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out as Prime Minister of Israel before
Before Jul 1, 2026 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out as Prime Minister of Israel before.
Price history
4¢ current
−45¢Contract brief
If Benjamin Netanyahu leaves as Prime Minister of Israel before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jul 1, 2026
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Jul 1, 2026 4¢
Range
3¢-4¢
Family volume
$800
Identifier
KXNETANYAHUOUT-26JUN-JUL01
Jun 24, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$99
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out as Prime Minister of Israel before
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$800
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Benjamin Netanyahu leaves as Prime Minister of Israel before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXNETANYAHUOUT-26JUN-JUL01
Event family
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out as Prime Minister of Israel before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$800
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jul 1, 2026 4¢
Current share
12%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.