Between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Aug 2026
3 to 9 is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 8 inside KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG.
Price history
10¢ current
Contract brief
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 3 and 9 persons in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
3 to 9
Rank
#4 of 8
Leader
0 46¢
Range
1¢-46¢
Family volume
$20
Identifier
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-6
Aug 6, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$104
Family rank
#4 of 8
8 outcomes · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$20
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 3 and 9 persons in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-6
Event family
KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20
Outcomes
8
Highest price
0 46¢
Current share
0%
0
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-0
1
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-1
10 to 24
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-17
3 to 9
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-6
25 to 99
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-62
2
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-2
Above 249
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-124
100 to 249
kalshi · KXPARDONSTRUMP-26AUG-174
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.