Will Billy Webster be the Democratic nominee for Governor in South Carolina?

The market shows extreme yield asymmetry with Yes contracts offering 275% implied yield versus just 15% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Webster's nomination odds relative to the risk-free rate—though this may reflect genuine long-shot status rather than arbitrage opportunity. Recent price movement from 11¢ to 19¢ (73% gain over 7 days) indicates growing conviction, but the thin $985 open interest and wide 7¢ spread raise liquidity concerns that could amplify slippage on larger positions. With 566 days to expiry and a moderate 4 cliff risk index, the market has ample time for information arrival, though the low 24-hour volume of $214.60 suggests limited trader interest in this relatively obscure gubernatorial race.

Resolution rules

If Billy Webster wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 South Carolina Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

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