Will Billy Webster be the Democratic nominee for Governor in South Carolina?

23¢

Bid/Ask 19/26¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $985.33·Closes Nov 3, 2027·563d remaining

KXGOVSCNOMD-26-BWEB

7-day price6 snapshots · 6 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing Billy Webster's nomination chances at 23¢ versus just 12¢ on Polymarket—an 11-cent gap suggesting potential mispricing or differing liquidity conditions. The extremely high implied yield of 276.2% on the Yes side combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($0) and thin open interest ($985.33) indicates low liquidity and high uncertainty, making the 7-cent bid-ask spread substantial relative to the contract value. With 563 days until expiration and a cliff risk index of 4, this market remains highly speculative and illiquid, though the recent price recovery from 11¢ to 19¢ suggests some renewed interest in Webster's candidacy.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 12¢(Δ +11¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 5273.7%Close-time delta 12303h

Resolution rules

If Billy Webster wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 South Carolina Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 276.2%

IY (No) 15.2%

Adj IY 138%

CRI 4

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	276.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	138%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:19:29 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVSCNOMD-26-BWEB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →