Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This market prices Tinubu's departure at 31¢ with extremely thin liquidity—just $919 open interest and $15 in 24-hour volume—making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading for actual execution.
Analysis
This market prices Tinubu's departure at 31¢ with extremely thin liquidity—just $919 open interest and $15 in 24-hour volume—making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading for actual execution. The 29.5% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated compared to the 4.5% No yield, suggesting either underpricing of political risk or illiquidity premium, though the 3182-day timeframe to expiry (through 2035) provides substantial runway for resolution uncertainty. Price stability over the past week (flat at 28¢) combined with low volume and a neutral regime score indicates minimal conviction, making this a speculative position with significant execution risk.
Resolution rules
If the President of Nigeria is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-BT yes 100