What is the current probability for "Will Boston win at least 85 games this season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 8, 2026. 198 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Boston win at least 85 games this season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 525.1% and 64.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Boston win at least 85 games this season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Boston win at least 85 games this season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Boston win at least 85 games this season?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a reasonable 205-day time horizon, with zero 24-hour volume and only $5,858 open interest creating a 5¢ spread.

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28¢

Bid/Ask 26/27¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $401.03·OI $9,078.94·Closes Nov 8, 2026·198d remaining

KXMLBWINS-BOS-26-T85

7-day price924 snapshots · 33 regime

51¢26¢ current

Apr 84¢Apr 24

Analysis

7d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a reasonable 205-day time horizon, with zero 24-hour volume and only $5,858 open interest creating a 5¢ spread. The 51¢ price has collapsed 6 cents over seven days (from 45¢), and the realized volatility of 11,592% with a Vol Ratio of 15.76 signals severe mispricing or thin-market dysfunction rather than genuine probability discovery. The asymmetric implied yields (267% for Yes vs. 119% for No) suggest the market lacks sufficient participation to establish reliable pricing on what should be a relatively straightforward seasonal win total prediction.

Resolution rules

If Boston has 85+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 525.1%

IY (No) 64.8%

Adj IY 505%

CRI 3

RV 5159%

VR 7.02

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	525.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	64.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	505%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5159%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.02	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Computed

4/24/2026, 7:45:03 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 7:38:16 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBWINS-BOS-26-T85 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →