SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — 181 contracts, SF signal on every row.

181 live Kalshi contracts (187 audited). Median implied probability sits at 53%. 334 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T75 -77c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBWINS
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBWINS
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBWINS",
    "label": "MLB Team Season Win Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 181,
    "volume24hSum": 3746.68,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$3.7K-52%
min $2.5Kmax $34.7K
Breadth3%+9.4pp
min -28%max 4%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 04:00 UTC
Jun 17past 7d · UTCJun 24 · 02:23

Live contracts

181

Median IY

53¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$3.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-77¢

KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T75

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 33 of 181 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 14.0 → 8613.4%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d8613.44313.714.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Team Season Win Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 181

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will San Francisco win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins82¢
IY 58%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 164%Resid —$1.0K
Will Detroit win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins48¢
IY 289%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 948%Resid —$329
Will New York M win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins51¢
IY 256%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 325%Resid —$300
Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$280
Will Milwaukee win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins23¢
IY 892%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 603%Resid —$260
Will Kansas City win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins28¢
IY 685%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$232
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins56¢
IY 209%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$224
Will Los Angeles D win at least 105 games this season?: 105+ wins29¢
IY 652%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$179
Will Baltimore win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins47¢
IY 300%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 583%Resid —$175
Will New York M win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins22¢
IY 944%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$156
Will Kansas City win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$95
Will Milwaukee win at least 105 games this season?: 105+ wins6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$86
Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins26¢
IY 758%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 592%Resid —$77
Will Chicago C win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins69¢
IY 120%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 306%Resid —$75
Will New York Y win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$50
Will Texas win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins27¢
IY 720%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$40
Will St. Louis win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins60¢
IY 178%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 553%Resid —$38
Will Milwaukee win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins53¢
IY 236%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$38
Will Baltimore win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins71¢
IY 109%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 204%Resid —$25
Will Washington win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 914%Resid —$22
181 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Team Season Win Total Markets

From market_changes
11h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
5¢82→5 (-77)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
81¢5→81 (+76)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
5¢81→5 (-76)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
80¢5→80 (+75)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
71¢5→71 (+66)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
6¢71→6 (-65)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
69¢4→69 (+65)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
71¢6→71 (+65)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 Jun 2026 03:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →