SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — 156 contracts, SF signal on every row.

156 live Kalshi contracts (187 audited). Median implied probability sits at 51%. 421 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBWINS-SF-26-T65 +91c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBWINS
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBWINS
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBWINS",
    "label": "MLB Team Season Win Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 156,
    "volume24hSum": 18022.64,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 08 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$18.0K-2%
min $14.3Kmax $27.2K
Breadth-2%+3.2pp
min -6%max 4%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 03:30 UTC
Aug 1past 7d · UTCAug 8 · 02:23

Live contracts

156

Median IY

51¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$18.0K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+91¢

KXMLBWINS-SF-26-T65

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 43 of 156 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 34.5 → 12822.9%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d12822.96428.734.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Team Season Win Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 156

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Boston win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins64¢
IY 223%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 665%Resid —$5.3K
Will Boston win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins91¢
IY 39%Cliff 10Edge —RVol 510%Resid —$2.2K
Will New York M win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins29¢
IY 971%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 905%Resid —$2.0K
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins39¢
IY 620%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 761%Resid —$1.2K
Will Seattle win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.1K
Will the A's win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins42¢
IY 548%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 362%Resid —$1.1K
Will Tampa Bay win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins80¢
IY 99%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 478%Resid —$543
Will San Francisco win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$526
Will Los Angeles A win at least 70 games this season?: 70+ wins5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$510
Will San Diego win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins77¢
IY 118%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 227%Resid —$438
Will Boston win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$358
Will Boston win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$346
Will Cleveland win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins31¢
IY 883%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$337
Will Atlanta win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$260
Will Houston win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins39¢
IY 620%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$235
Will Los Angeles D win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins53¢
IY 352%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$228
Will Washington win at least 70 games this season?: 70+ wins80¢
IY 99%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$175
Will New York M win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$145
Will Washington win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins61¢
IY 254%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 823%Resid —$140
Will Atlanta win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins46¢
IY 466%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 163%Resid —$136
156 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Team Season Win Total Markets

From market_changes
2h agoKalshi
Will San Francisco win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins
92¢1→92 (+91)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
22¢72→22 (-50)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
72¢23→72 (+49)
open →
1h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
82¢38→82 (+44)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
81¢38→81 (+43)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
38¢81→38 (-43)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
81¢38→81 (+43)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
81¢38→81 (+43)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 08 Aug 2026 03:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →