SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — 187 contracts, SF signal on every row.

187 live Kalshi contracts (187 audited). Median implied probability sits at 48%. 652 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBWINS-COL-26-T55 -60c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBWINS
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBWINS
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBWINS",
    "label": "MLB Team Season Win Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 187,
    "volume24hSum": 7911.02,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$7.9K-56%
min $2.5Kmax $34.7K
Breadth-10%+13.5pp
min -28%max 4%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:45 UTC
Jun 19past 7d · UTCJun 25 · 22:23

Live contracts

187

Median IY

48¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$7.9K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-60¢

KXMLBWINS-COL-26-T55

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 40 of 187 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 14.2 → 6477.2%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d6477.23245.714.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Team Season Win Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 187

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Baltimore win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins50¢
IY 270%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 417%Resid —$1.3K
Will Atlanta win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins40¢
IY 405%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 995%Resid —$1.3K
Will Seattle win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
Will Milwaukee win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins90¢
IY 30%Cliff 9Edge —RVol 159%Resid —$750
Will A's win at least 70 games this season?: 70+ wins81¢
IY 63%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 405%Resid —$600
Will New York Y win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$416
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins57¢
IY 204%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$376
Will Tampa Bay win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$325
Will Seattle win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins41¢
IY 388%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 369%Resid —$305
Will Milwaukee win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins44¢
IY 343%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$226
Will Atlanta win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$224
Will Atlanta win at least 105 games this season?: 105+ wins7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$121
Will Los Angeles D win at least 110 games this season?: 110+ wins11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will San Francisco win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins46¢
IY 317%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$100
Will Atlanta win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins68¢
IY 127%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 223%Resid —$77
Will Arizona win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins54¢
IY 230%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 797%Resid —$75
Will San Francisco win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$60
Will San Francisco win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$57
Will Houston win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins32¢
IY 574%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 674%Resid —$41
Will A's win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins22¢
IY 957%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$40
187 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Team Season Win Total Markets

From market_changes
15h agoKalshi
Will Colorado win at least 55 games this season?: 55+ wins
25¢85→25 (-60)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
84¢24→84 (+60)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
24¢83→24 (-59)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
83¢24→83 (+59)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
24¢83→24 (-59)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
83¢24→83 (+59)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will San Diego win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
83¢24→83 (+59)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will Colorado win at least 55 games this season?: 55+ wins
84¢26→84 (+58)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 22:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →