SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — 35 contracts, SF signal on every row.

35 live Kalshi contracts (187 audited). Median implied probability sits at 47%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBWINS
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBWINS
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBWINS",
    "label": "MLB Team Season Win Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 35,
    "volume24hSum": 12246.88,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+299.0
Vol Flow$12.2K+49%
min $8.2Kmax $16.8K
Breadth100%+95.7pp
min -20%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 03:45 UTC
Sep 16past 7d · UTCSep 23 · 02:23

Live contracts

35

Median IY

47¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$12.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

MLB Team Season Win Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 31 of 35 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 33.0 → 19028.6%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d19028.69530.833.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Team Season Win Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 35

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Detroit win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins95¢
IY 42%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.9K
Will Los Angeles D win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.5K
Will Milwaukee win at least 100 games this season?: 100+ wins80¢
IY 198%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.3K
Will Atlanta win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins45¢
IY 969%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$932
Will Cleveland win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins93¢
IY 60%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$736
Will New York Y win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins34¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$630
Will Miami win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins40¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$585
Will Cleveland win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$536
Will Washington win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins66¢
IY 408%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$431
Will Tampa Bay win at least 95 games this season?: 95+ wins96¢
IY 33%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$400
Will Colorado win at least 60 games this season?: 60+ wins40¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$383
Will the A's win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$383
Will Cincinnati win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins67¢
IY 391%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$319
Will Minnesota win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins79¢
IY 211%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$317
Will Kansas City win at least 70 games this season?: 70+ wins71¢
IY 324%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$264
Will Chicago C win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins45¢
IY 969%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$223
Will Pittsburgh win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins72¢
IY 308%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$222
Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins43¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$184
Will San Francisco win at least 65 games this season?: 65+ wins90¢
IY 88%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$169
Will Baltimore win at least 80 games this season?: 80+ wins27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$163
35 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Sep 2026 03:08:40 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBWINS →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →