SimpleFunctions

Brazil · KXCOPAAMERICA-28

Brazil is priced at 45¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside KXCOPAAMERICA-28.

Price history

45¢ current

+43¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jul 15, 2026Jul 23, 2026

Contract brief

If Brazil is the 2028 Copa America champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Brazil

Rank

#1 of 7

Leader

Brazil 41¢

Range

1¢-41¢

Family volume

$51

Identifier

KXCOPAAMERICA-28-BRA

Jul 25, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

45¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 25, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

41¢

Ask

43¢

Spread

Reported volume

$33

Family rank

#1 of 7

7 outcomes · KXCOPAAMERICA-28

Closes

Aug 15, 2028

Family volume

$51

Orderbook snapshot

41 / 43¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
41¢5
40¢10
14¢27
13¢872
6¢49
AskSize
43¢600
58¢50
60¢48
61¢4.9K
63¢33K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Brazil is the 2028 Copa America champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 15, 2028

Identifier

KXCOPAAMERICA-28-BRA

SF Signal
SF Index
34.90
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXCOPAAMERICA-28.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$51

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Brazil 41¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

69.8%

IY (No)

33.7%

Adj IY

35%

CRI

1

Overround

-0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

69.8%
33.7%
Adj IY
35%
1
Overround
-0.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.