Will Brigitte Macron win Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS)?
KXMACRONOWENSLONG-28 · closes Jan 1, 2028 · 626 days remaining
Price
Last
59¢
Bid
60¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
8¢
24h Volume
$63.68
Open Interest
$5,247.88
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 38.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 87.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 196% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.13 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 87% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
13 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 5:42:25 PM
About this market
If Delaware Superior Court sides with Brigitte Macron in Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXMACRONOWENSLONG-28 yes 100