SimpleFunctions

Brigitte Macron to win Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number

Will Brigitte Macron win Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS) is priced at 58¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 52¢ bid, 58¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

58¢ current

+2¢
50¢60¢
Jul 10, 2026Aug 9, 2026

Contract brief

If Delaware Superior Court sides with Brigitte Macron in Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will Brigitte Macron win Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS)

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$14K

Identifier

KXMACRONOWENSLONG-28

Aug 10, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

58¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 10, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

52¢

Ask

58¢

Spread

24h volume

$22

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Family volume

$14K

Orderbook snapshot

52 / 58¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
52¢5
51¢500
45¢40
25¢18
11¢36
AskSize
58¢501
91¢22
92¢63
93¢1.8K
93¢49

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Delaware Superior Court sides with Brigitte Macron in Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS) before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Identifier

KXMACRONOWENSLONG-28

SF Signal
SF Index
77.60
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$14K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will Brigitte Macron win Macron and Macron vs Owens (case number: N25C-07-194 CLS) 58¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

66.1%

IY (No)

77.6%

Adj IY

78%

CRI

1

RV

121%

VR

1.50

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

66.1%
77.6%
Adj IY
78%
1
RV
121%
VR
1.50
IAR
0.3/h

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.