Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026
Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026 is priced at 45¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 42¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
45¢ current
−29¢Contract brief
If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$45K
Identifier
KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26DEC31
Jun 21, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
42¢
Ask
50¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$45K
Orderbook snapshot
42 / 50¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26DEC31
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$45K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026 45¢
Current share
100%
Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026
kalshi · KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26DEC31
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 45% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.