SimpleFunctions

BTC trimmed mean above $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026

Above $67,500.00 is priced at 53¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 53¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will BTC trimmed mean be above $.

Price history

53¢ current

17¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Aug 1, 2026Aug 9, 2026

Contract brief

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026 is ever above $ 67500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $67,500.00

Rank

#1 of 7

Leader

Above $67,500.00 53¢

Range

1¢-53¢

Family volume

$50K

Identifier

KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-6750000

Aug 9, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

53¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 9, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

53¢

Ask

54¢

Spread

24h volume

$17K

Family rank

#1 of 7

7 outcomes · Will BTC trimmed mean be above $

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Family volume

$50K

Orderbook snapshot

53 / 54¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
53¢3.4K
52¢721
50¢16
49¢4
48¢950
AskSize
54¢89
55¢338
56¢855
59¢3.1K
64¢150

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026 is ever above $ 67500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Identifier

KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-6750000

SF Signal
SF Index
1785.30
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1431.0%

IY (No)

1819.7%

Adj IY

1785%

CRI

1

RV

313%

VR

0.86

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1431.0%
1819.7%
Adj IY
1785%
1
RV
313%
VR
0.86
IAR
1.0/h
Overround
0.0%
LAS
0.02

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.