Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?

Byron Donalds is priced at a very high 86¢ probability with tight cross-venue agreement (86¢ on both Kalshi and Polymarket), suggesting strong consensus that he's the frontrunner for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. However, the extreme 965.9% implied yield on the No side combined with modest $240k open interest and recent downward price movement from 87¢ to 84¢ indicates limited liquidity and potential overconfidence in his nomination—the market may be underpricing alternative candidates with 198 days until resolution. The 2¢ spread is tight, but the cliff risk index of 5 warrants caution given the binary nature of nomination contests where late-breaking political developments can rapidly shift delegate/voter preferences.

Resolution rules

If Byron Donalds wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

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