SimpleFunctions

Cape Verde · KXWCGSGOALS-26FEWEST

Cape Verde is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 20¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside KXWCGSGOALS-26FEWEST.

Price history

11¢ current

+10¢
0¢10¢20¢
Jun 15, 2026Jun 21, 2026

Contract brief

If Cape Verde records the fewest goals allowed by any team in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Cape Verde

Rank

#14 of 16

Leader

Argentina 47¢

Range

3¢-47¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXWCGSGOALS-26FEWEST-CPV

Jun 23, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 28m ago

Implied probability

11¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 28m ago

Bid

Ask

20¢

Spread

20¢

Reported volume

$147

Family rank

#14 of 16

16 outcomes · KXWCGSGOALS-26FEWEST

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 20¢

Kalshi
20¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
20¢193
21¢436
84¢2.3K
85¢100
95¢13

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Cape Verde records the fewest goals allowed by any team in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGSGOALS-26FEWEST-CPV

SF Signal
SF Index
20926.74
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

41853.5%

IY (No)

639.3%

Adj IY

20927%

CRI

8

Overround

3.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

41853.5%
639.3%
Adj IY
20927%
8
Overround
3.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.