Carlos Alcaraz · KXATP-26USO
Carlos Alcaraz is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXATP-26USO.
Price history
33¢ current
+31¢Contract brief
If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Carlos Alcaraz
Rank
#2 of 16
Leader
Jannik Sinner 39¢
Range
1¢-39¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXATP-26USO-ALC
Jun 21, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
37¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$232
Family rank
#2 of 16
16 outcomes · KXATP-26USO
Closes
Sep 28, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 37¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 28, 2026
Identifier
KXATP-26USO-ALC
Event family
KXATP-26USO.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Jannik Sinner 39¢
Current share
7%
Jannik Sinner
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-SIN
Carlos Alcaraz
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-ALC
Taylor Fritz
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-FRI
Ben Shelton
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-SHE
Novak Djokovic
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-DJO
Joao Fonseca
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-FON
Flavio Cobolli
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-COB
Tommy Paul
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-PAU
Jack Draper
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-DRA
Rafael Jodar
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-JOD
Daniil Medvedev
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-MED
Jakub Mensik
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-MEN
Lorenzo Musetti
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-MUS
Holger Rune
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-RUN
Casper Ruud
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-RUU
Frances Tiafoe
kalshi · KXATP-26USO-TIA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.