SimpleFunctions

Carnival Corporation report Above 25.4 million available lower berth days in Q3 2026

Above 25.4 million is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside Will Carnival Corporation report.

Price history

4¢ current

+2¢
0¢5¢
Aug 21, 2026Sep 17, 2026

Contract brief

If Carnival Corporation reports Above 25400000.0 available lower berth days in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 25.4 million

Rank

#6 of 8

Leader

Above 24.8 million 95¢

Range

1¢-95¢

Family volume

$8K

Identifier

KXCCL-26SEPALBD-25400000.0

Sep 18, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 42m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 18, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 42m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#6 of 8

8 outcomes · Will Carnival Corporation report

Closes

Jan 26, 2027

Family volume

$8K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 4¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
3¢7.7K
AskSize
4¢6.8K
6¢250
9¢1.0K
25¢25
34¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Carnival Corporation reports Above 25400000.0 available lower berth days in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 26, 2027

Identifier

KXCCL-26SEPALBD-25400000.0

SF Signal
SF Index
4553.18
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

9106.4%

IY (No)

8.7%

Adj IY

4553%

CRI

32

Overround

0.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

9106.4%
8.7%
Adj IY
4553%
32
Overround
0.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.