Catalina Lauf receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the FL-19 Republican primary
At least 45% is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside Will Catalina Lauf receive at least.
Price history
17¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Catalina Lauf in the FL-19 Republican primary is 45% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 45%
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
At least 25% 82¢
Range
1¢-82¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-45
Aug 15, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$515
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Catalina Lauf receive at least
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Catalina Lauf in the FL-19 Republican primary is 45% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-45
Event family
Will Catalina Lauf receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
At least 25% 82¢
Current share
11%
At least 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-25
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-30
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-35
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-40
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-45
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-50
At least 55%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FL19R26CLAU-55
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 17% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.