Charles Leclerc · KXF1RACE-BELGP26
Charles Leclerc is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 14 inside KXF1RACE-BELGP26.
Price history
12¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If Charles Leclerc finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for July 19, 2026 at the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Charles Leclerc
Rank
#4 of 14
Leader
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 37¢
Range
1¢-37¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
KXF1RACE-BELGP26-LEC
Jul 12, 2026, 3:09 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 14
14 outcomes · KXF1RACE-BELGP26
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Charles Leclerc finishes in exactly first in the main race originally scheduled for July 19, 2026 at the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Identifier
KXF1RACE-BELGP26-LEC
Event family
KXF1RACE-BELGP26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 37¢
Current share
13%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-ANT
George Russell
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-RUS
Lewis Hamilton
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-HAM
Charles Leclerc
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-LEC
Max Verstappen
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-VER
Lando Norris
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-NOR
Isack Hadjar
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-HAD
Oscar Piastri
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-PIA
Alexander Albon
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-ALB
Esteban Ocon
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-OCO
Fernando Alonso
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-ALO
Carlos Sainz Jr.
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-SAI
Sergio Perez
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-PER
Valtteri Bottas
kalshi · KXF1RACE-BELGP26-BOT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.