Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04
Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXTOPSONG-26JUL04.
Price history
87¢ current
+84¢Contract brief
If Choosin' Texas is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas 85¢
Range
1¢-85¢
Family volume
$30K
Identifier
KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-CHO
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$14K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04
Closes
Jun 29, 2026
Family volume
$30K
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 87¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Choosin' Texas is #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 29, 2026
Identifier
KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-CHO
Event family
KXTOPSONG-26JUL04.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas 85¢
Current share
47%
Will Choosin' Texas be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Choosin' Texas
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-CHO
Will I Knew It, I Knew You be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: I Knew It, I Knew You
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kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-IJU
Will stupid song be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: stupid song
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Will less be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: less
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-LES
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kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-THE
Will drop dead be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: drop dead
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-DRO
Will BE HER be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: BE HER
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-BEH
Will begged be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: begged
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-BEG
Will Billie Jean be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Billie Jean
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-BIL
Will Boston be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Boston
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-BOS
Will expectations be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: expectations
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-EXP
Will Folded be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: Folded
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-FOL
Will hate that i made you love me be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: hate that i made you love me
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-HAT
Will HOMEWRECKER be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: HOMEWRECKER
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-HOM
Will honeybee be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Jul 4, 2026: honeybee
kalshi · KXTOPSONG-26JUL04-HON
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 87% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.