Will Chris Swanson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Michigan?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Chris Swanson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Michigan?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Chris Swanson's Democratic gubernatorial nomination odds have collapsed 50% over seven days to just 11¢, though the extreme 1,473% implied yield on Yes positions and 8.33 volatility ratio suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing rather than settled conviction.
Analysis
Chris Swanson's Democratic gubernatorial nomination odds have collapsed 50% over seven days to just 11¢, though the extreme 1,473% implied yield on Yes positions and 8.33 volatility ratio suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing rather than settled conviction. The $6,160 open interest with a 4¢ spread indicates thin liquidity for a market with 201 days to expiry, making the astronomical realized volatility (2,439%) and cliff risk score of 8 potentially unreliable for directional bets. Recent information arrival at 0.7 events per hour combined with the neutral regime suggests this market may be reacting to Michigan Democratic primary developments rather than reflecting fundamental shifts in Swanson's viability.
Also on polymarket at 4¢(Δ +7¢)
Resolution rules
If Chris Swanson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Michigan Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVMINOMD-26-CS yes 100