Claude · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550
Claude is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside KXMODELHIGH-27-1550.
Price history
30¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Claude
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Claude 25¢
Range
1¢-25¢
Family volume
$376
Identifier
KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-CLAU
Jun 23, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
25¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$114
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$376
Orderbook snapshot
25 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-CLAU
Event family
KXMODELHIGH-27-1550.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$376
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Claude 25¢
Current share
30%
Claude
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-CLAU
ChatGPT
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-CHAT
Gemini
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-GEMI
Grok
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-GROK
Other
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-OTHE
Ernie
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-ERNI
Kimi
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-KIMI
Qwen
kalshi · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-QWEN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 30% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.