SimpleFunctions
KalshiJan 1, 2027237 days left

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

This contract is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

37¢
$21K volume
$9K liquidity
8684% of event volume

Event outcomes

8

Family volume

$237

Best sibling

ChatGPT 7¢

Ticker

KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-CLAU

Market snapshot

Claude in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?. The displayed quote is 37¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $115. In the KXMODELHIGH-27-1550 family, this outcome ranks #1 of 8 by current quote across 8 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC.

Outcome

Claude

Family rank

#1 of 8

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

37¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jan 1, 2027

24h volume

$115

Family context

8 outcomes · KXMODELHIGH-27-1550

Quote range

1¢-35¢

Family leader

Claude 35¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 9m ago

Venue identifier: KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-CLAU. Family volume: $237.

Price history

37¢ current

10¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 9, 2026May 9, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

35 / 36¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
35¢54
33¢25
32¢500
31¢190
30¢50
AskSize
36¢47
37¢2
38¢25
40¢6
41¢500

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXMODELHIGH-27-1550-CLAU

Event family

KXMODELHIGH-27-1550.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$237

Outcomes

8

Highest price

Claude 35¢

Current share

48%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

285.6%

IY (No)

82.8%

Adj IY

286%

CRI

2

RV

954%

VR

6.08

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

scientific

Full indicator table

285.6%
82.8%
Adj IY
286%
2
RV
954%
VR
6.08
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
-0.4%

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