SimpleFunctions

Colorado win at least 1 game this season

1+ win is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 90¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will Colorado win at least.

Price history

96¢ current

+94¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
Aug 2, 2026Aug 25, 2026

Contract brief

If the Colorado college football team has at least 1 wins in the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

1+ win

Rank

#1 of 9

Leader

1+ win 90¢

Range

2¢-90¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXNCAAFWINS-26COLO-1

Aug 27, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

96¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 27, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

90¢

Ask

97¢

Spread

24h volume

$5

Family rank

#1 of 9

9 outcomes · Will Colorado win at least

Closes

Dec 20, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

90 / 97¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
90¢250
76¢12
75¢90
AskSize
97¢500
98¢500
99¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Colorado college football team has at least 1 wins in the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 20, 2026

Identifier

KXNCAAFWINS-26COLO-1

SF Signal
SF Index
1422.67
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

35.1%

IY (No)

2845.3%

Adj IY

1423%

CRI

9

Overround

3.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

35.1%
2845.3%
Adj IY
1423%
9
Overround
3.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.