SimpleFunctions

Constellation Brands Inc report Above 126 million total beer shipments in Q2 2027

Above 126 million is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside Will Constellation Brands Inc report Above 1.

Price history

12¢ current

37¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jul 9, 2026Jul 30, 2026

Contract brief

If Constellation Brands Inc reports Above 126000000 total beer shipments in Q2 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 126 million

Rank

#7 of 8

Leader

Above 114 million 87¢

Range

2¢-87¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXSTZ-26OCTBEER-126000000

Aug 2, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

12¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 2, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

Ask

13¢

Spread

Reported volume

$32

Family rank

#7 of 8

8 outcomes · Will Constellation Brands Inc report Above 1

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 13¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
100¢50
7¢5
6¢200
AskSize
13¢200
97¢3.8K
98¢56
99¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Constellation Brands Inc reports Above 126000000 total beer shipments in Q2 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 2, 2027

Identifier

KXSTZ-26OCTBEER-126000000

SF Signal
SF Index
1316.59
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2633.2%

IY (No)

14.9%

Adj IY

1317%

CRI

13

Overround

2.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2633.2%
14.9%
Adj IY
1317%
13
Overround
2.2%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.