Will Cory Mills be out as Congressman before June 1, 2026?

41¢

Bid/Ask 33/39¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $661.25·OI $2,760.9·Closes Jun 1, 2026·43d remaining

KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26JUN

7-day price83 snapshots · 23 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing a 34% probability that Rep. Cory Mills exits Congress before June 1, 2026, with an unusually high implied yield of 1,651% on the Yes side reflecting the short 43-day timeframe and low absolute price. Volume is modest at $1,068 over 24 hours against $2,761 open interest, suggesting limited liquidity for a binary event with extreme leverage potential. The 674% realized volatility and recent 2-cent price jump indicate significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and low info arrival rate (0.3/hour) suggest no imminent catalyst is driving the market.

Resolution rules

If Cory Mills leaves the House before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1737.5%

IY (No) 421.5%

Adj IY 1632%

CRI 2

RV 586%

VR 1.17

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1737.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	421.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1632%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	586%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.17	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 12:32:34 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 12:23:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEAVEMILLS-26NOV03-26JUN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →