Dan Bilzerian receive at least 17.5% of the popular vote in the FL-06 Republican primary
At least 17.5% is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 99¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Dan Bilzerian receive at least.
Price history
99¢ current
+97¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan Bilzerian in the FL-06 Republican primary is 17.5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 17.5%
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
At least 17.5% 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$158
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-17
Aug 24, 2026, 2:59 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
99¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$16K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Dan Bilzerian receive at least
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$158
Orderbook snapshot
99 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan Bilzerian in the FL-06 Republican primary is 17.5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-17
Event family
Will Dan Bilzerian receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$158
Outcomes
16
Highest price
At least 17.5% 99¢
Current share
0%
At least 2.5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-2
At least 17.5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-17
At least 1%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-1
At least 10%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-10
At least 12.5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-12
At least 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-15
At least 4%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-4
At least 5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-5
At least 6%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-6
At least 7.5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-7
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-20
At least 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-25
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-30
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-35
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-40
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-FLPRIMARY06R26DBIL-45
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 99% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.