Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 91¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
98¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If David Jolly wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
KXGOVFLNOMD-26-DJOL
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
91¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
91 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If David Jolly wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXGOVFLNOMD-26-DJOL
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida 98¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.