Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Florida?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market is pricing in an exceptionally high probability (80%) for Jolly's nomination despite zero trading volume in 24 hours and minimal open interest of $2,555, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an exceptionally high probability (80%) for Jolly's nomination despite zero trading volume in 24 hours and minimal open interest of $2,555, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The dramatic asymmetry in implied yields—63.9% for Yes versus 517.9% for No—indicates the market is heavily skewed toward the affirmative outcome, though the "No" side offers outsized returns if Jolly fails to secure the nomination. With 201 days until expiration and a recent price decline from 77¢ to 74¢, this contract warrants scrutiny as to whether the 80¢ current price reflects genuine conviction or illiquidity-driven mispricing.
Also on polymarket at 83¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If David Jolly wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVFLNOMD-26-DJOL yes 100