David MacNeil · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29
David MacNeil is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29.
Price history
21¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If David MacNeil is the first person confirmed as FTC Commissioner before Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
David MacNeil
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
Brett Matsumoto 73¢
Range
1¢-73¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-DMAC
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$2
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If David MacNeil is the first person confirmed as FTC Commissioner before Aug 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
Identifier
KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-DMAC
Event family
KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Brett Matsumoto 73¢
Current share
—
Brett Matsumoto
kalshi · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-BMAT
Nicole Saphier
kalshi · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR30-NSAP
David MacNeil
kalshi · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-DMAC
Walter "Jay" Clayton
kalshi · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-JCLA
Scott Bessent
kalshi · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-SBES
Casey Means
kalshi · KXSENATECONFIRM-26APR29-CMEA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.